Weekly Chart Review

More questions than answers...

If there is one thing we know for certain, it’s that the future is uncertain.

Investors live with this paradigm on a daily basis. Therefore, the best we can do is to make probabilistic bets on where we believe the market will move over the short, medium, and long terms.

Sometimes we get it right, and sometimes we get it wrong, but the goal is to not allow your “wrong” bets to take you out of the game or derail your investment objectives.

This is where seeking professional guidance and diversification come into play. I cannot stress this enough.

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I led with the comments above because I believe we are in a uniquely uncertain time as it pertains to investing and the markets in general.

Here are some open-ended thoughts/questions I have been processing of late and trying to discern how they play out in the investment arena over the short-to-medium term:

• How will Trump’s proposed policies impact the investment markets?

  • Whether it's tariffs, immigration, taxes, etc. will Trump be as extreme as some have suggested? Or, are these just negotiation tools to get the desired outcomes he seeks?

  • The Republicans now control the Presidency, the House, and the Senate but does that necessarily mean that everything Trump wants to do will get passed? I don’t think it does. So what makes it through and what doesn’t?

  • Trump has already appointed a number of people to hold positions within his administration. Where applicable, will all of these be approved by the Senate?

• Is the economy as good as the Biden administration has suggested? Or will we learn in the coming months that maybe that wasn’t the case?

• Did the Fed cut too soon and by too much? The market is currently pricing in cuts well into next year but Chairman Powell, and other Fed speakers last week, struck a tone that seemed to be walking back some of the perceived cuts. How will the market respond to this?

• How will the wars in Russia/Ukraine and Israel/Hammas end? Or will they?

The list goes on and on but hopefully, you get my point. Each of these has the potential to impact the markets.

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In moments like this, I find it helpful to do two things: