Weekly Chart Review

Betting markets were the clue...

I always find the election process, and the election itself, fascinating, but I’ll be the first to admit that I’m happy it’s over!

I found it interesting this year that the polls were effectively garbage. I’d say that ~90% of the polls I looked at suggested a Harris win or a race that was too close to call.

Instead, Trump won, and candidly, it wasn’t even close. How did the polls get that so wrong?

Starting in late summer, I began to pay more attention to the betting polls (i.e., Polymarket and PredictIt).

My thesis was that if people were willing to slap down real money, they would be more likely to “bet” on who they think will win vs. who they want to win (which is how I think polls often get answered).

Using that thesis, let’s see how the betting markets did in predicting the actual outcome of the election.